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Expected cost = chance of divorce × what divorce costs you. Your chance of divorce is the same at any age: about 44% of men's first marriages end within 20 years (CDC, 2012). That's the CDC's figure from the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth: 56% of men's first marriages were still intact at 20 years, with separations counted as endings (NHSR No. 49, Table 6). It's a 20-year figure, not a lifetime rate. We use the same number for everyone, whatever your age. Your age only caps how many years the marriage can last (next point). CDC NHSR No. 49 (2012), Table 6
Years married is capped so the marriage in the model ends by age 67, Social Security's full retirement age for anyone born in 1960 or later (minimum 1 year). The cap is our choice: the model assumes the same salary every year, and that stops making sense after retirement. SSA full retirement age
Property: half your savings plus half your house equity, split 50/50 (the community-property rule; other states vary). We use the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances 2025 for a household in its mid-30s: half of median wealth outside the home is about $32,000, and half of median home equity among homeowners is about $85,000 (60.9% of householders aged 35–44 own their home, Census, Q2 2026). That's $117,000, our own math from the public SCF data. It's one figure for that age group, so it stays the same whatever your salary, your spouse's salary or your savings rate. Fed SCF 2025 / Census HVS / IRS Pub. 555 (community property)
Alimony uses the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers' 2007 proposed guideline. It isn't binding anywhere and states differ a lot. Yearly amount = 30% of the higher earner's gross minus 20% of the lower earner's, capped so the receiver never ends up with more than 40% of combined income. Duration = years married × 0.3 (up to 3 years), × 0.5 (over 3 and up to 10), × 0.75 (over 10 and up to 20). Over 20 years the guideline says permanent. This model caps it at one year of payments per year married, so it understates those. If you're the lower earner, alimony comes out as money you receive. AAML 2007 recommendations (text)
Legal fees: $12,780 for a fought divorce (average attorney fees of $11,300 plus $1,480 in other costs) and $4,100 for an uncontested one. Martindale-Nolo survey
Prenup: costs $8,000 up front, the average attorney-drafted prenup in HelloPrenup's 2024 survey of family lawyers. SmartAsset / HelloPrenup. A valid prenup is assumed to waive alimony, keep savings separate and make the divorce uncontested. Assumption: it gets thrown out 10% of the time, because there's no reliable national number. Expected cost with a prenup = $8,000 + your chance of divorce × (10% × full bill + 90% × $4,100).
Not included: kids and child support, investment growth, taxes, debts, second marriages (the CDC odds are for first marriages), and the cost of the wedding itself. Alimony is no longer tax-deductible for the payer, or taxable for the receiver, under divorce agreements signed after 2018. IRS Topic 452